HOW EVEN AN UN-BIASED UMPIRE CAN AFFECT A BASEBALL GAME

Two things I do not like about the MLB Network’s telecast of the playoff games of the surprising Houston Astros: (i) while the announcers come armed with the usual load of statistics and vignettes, their reporting and analysis of the game itself are shallow and banal, unlike those of the Root Sports team that covers the team during the regular season; and (ii) the MLB set-up, though capable of providing graphics showing the exact location of each pitch when it crosses the plate, provides those graphics only sporadically and seldom when there is a close call. Why not on every pitch?

One thing one learns from watching the pitch-location graphics during the Astros’ regular season: the “strike zone” is a very flexible concept for most umpires. Some are excellent at getting the call right, but all of them make a lot of mistakes, and most of them have a pattern when it comes to marginal calls – for example, one ump may give you the low strike but not the high one, some have a generally big strike zone or a small one, etc. I see no indication that any ump is biased in favor of one team or another, but that does not mean their calls do not affect the outcome of the game. The Astros are a classic example of the impact of variable strike-zones.

The Astros have a finesse pitching-staff. Dallas Keuchel, their ace (and a likely Cy Young winner), rarely hits above 89mph on his fastball. His game is his mastery of the movement and location of a wide variety of relatively-slow pitches. He loves a big strike zone, because it gives him more leeway to pitch away from the center of the strike zone. When he is stuck with an umpire with a small strike zone, he is handicapped, because he must essentially “groove” his pitches toward the center of the zone to get strikes, and a team loaded with contact hitters (like the Royals) can work with that. But 11 of the Astros 12 pitchers are finesse pitchers. Their only power pitcher, the only one whose fastball is nearly un-hittable even if it is thrown right at the center of the strike zone, is Lance McCullers.

Last Sunday’s debacle (at least, it was a debacle for the Astros), was a perfect demonstration of the point. McCullers pitched beautifully, well into the 7th inning, giving up only 2 runs on just 2 hits. Meanwhile, the Astros’ power offense was free-swinging away, plating 6 runs, 3 of which came on home runs. But once McCullers was pulled (because of his youth and a high pitch-count), the Royals dinked and dunked their way in the 8th inning to 6 consecutive little-bitty hits (actually 5, as one ball took a weird hop on the ‘Stros and was called an error), exhausting 3 consecutive finesse-pitching relievers for the Astros.  The game was effectively over. The home plate ump did not call a bad game, as his strike zone was consistently shrunken for both teams, but his small zone, while fine with the Astros’ lone power pitcher, was a disaster for their delicate bullpen.

Tonight’s crucial game offers a potential repeat of Sunday’s disaster: another finesse pitcher going for the ‘Stros (McHugh) and another power pitcher going for the Royals (Cueto). If you are rooting for the Astros, you had better hope for a really wide and tall strike zone.

DID HARD KNOCKS PUT A HARD KNOCK ON THE TEXANS?

How do you suppose Head Coach Bill O’Brien of the Houston Texans feels about his team’s participation in “Hard Knocks” last summer? We know the Texans, though they really had no choice in the matter, went along with it without apparently trying to sabotage the show, but still . . .

There is a reason why the U. S. Supreme Court still resists having its proceedings and deliberations televised, and it is probably the same reason as Coach O’Brien’s when he  initially resisted Hard Knocks: People behave differently when they are on camera. The media, of course, want to do the Supremes, just like they wanted to do Coach O’Brien. In the case of the Supremes, they invoke the argument that the Court’s actions are the public’s business, that the people have a right to know. In the case of Hard Knocks, the media (at least HBO) have an easier case to make to the NFL: it is good theater, a great marketing device for the league, and if it only screws up one team for one year, no big deal.

It is hard to watch the 2015 version of the Texans without forming the impression that something is very wrong, that the talent is not that bad (better than last year’s 9 & 7 team), that the problem might be the coaching. Do you suppose the coaches did a lousy job of preparing the team because they could not concentrate 100% of their attention upon their job of preparing the team? Same with the players? Do you suppose Coach O’Brien, who is a very smart and entertaining guy, got a little too caught up in playing to the camera?

HOW TO PICK A DOCTOR

Went shopping for a new otolaryngologist this week, found myself looking up everything I could find on ENT doctors in my area. After sorting through what Google had to offer, I identified my #1 choice. Soon after, I heard from my internist’s office with their recommendation (which I had sought 2 weeks earlier), and guess what? Their #1 recommendation was the same doctor!

Got to thinking: what was it about my pick that had stood out, that persuaded me to rate him #1? Reluctantly had to recall that most of the ENT people in my area had similar resumes, and that the only thing about my #1 that had caught my fancy was that he has an Asian name and that part of his education and training occurred in Asia. My next thought: Gee, does that make me a racist or bigot? And then I answered myself: No, I am merely being rational. Here is why:

When I was growing up, the archetypal doctor was the Jewish doctor. Jews were supposed to be good at certain things, one of which was medicine. A Jewish doctor, it went without saying, was a good doctor. Only much later did I realize there was a sad but objectively-verifiable reason for this: for a Jew to become a doctor (or a lawyer, for that matter), he or she had to be really, really good, because higher education in America, beginning at least as early as the 1920s, had adopted a rigorous system of religious quotas in its admissions policies. It is now known for certain that Harvard (among many others) decided, in the 1920s, that it was admitting and graduating too many Jews, and so Harvard and a great many other schools put strict limits on the number of Jews they admitted.

Several decades later, the educational establishment came to terms with what they had done, and they finally abolished the quotas. But the quotas, while they lasted, had had the effect of denying admission to Jews unless they were exceptionally well-qualified – certainly better qualified than many of the non-Jews admitted. Obvious consequence: For more than a generation, if you were a Jew who made it through college and medical school, you were exceptionally good. Practical lesson the country learned: if in doubt, hire a Jewish doctor, and you can be pretty sure you got a good doctor.

Alas, now, decades later, things ostensibly are different. But now that schools are no longer discriminating against Jews, they have simply adopted the catchy rubric of “diversity” and moved on to another target: Asian-Americans. Nowadays, the process is more subtle – not outright quotas, but affirmative-action programs, “race-norming,” admission of the top X% of graduates of any high school in a particular state or other sector, and other devices that effectively resurrect the quota system by inflating the admissions of certain applicants – and thereby limiting the admissions of others. (The schools deny it, but the numbers speak for themselves.) In this updated version of the quota system, it is well-documented that Asian-American applicants are the main victims and African American applicants are the main beneficiaries. So, now that we are so much more enlightened about discrimination, Asian Americans are the new Jews when it comes to evaluating credentials; if you were an Asian American who made it through college and medical school, you were exceptionally good. Practical lesson: if in doubt, hire an Asian doctor, and you can be pretty sure you got a good doctor.

Turns out my instincts had led me in the right direction. By picking the Asian, I had picked the best available doctor.

LAST CHANCE FOR THE BAD GUYS

Watching a recent History Channel reprise of the charge that Soviet Premier Khrushchev ordered missiles installed in Cuba because he considered JFK to be weak and ineffectual, one was reminded of one of the oldest, most-validated aphorisms in the history of international relations: weakness invites aggression.

The international left, since Kennedy’s death, has been developing intricate refutations of that theory, and such denial has reached its apogee under President Obama. But it appears that the leaders of each of today’s Axis of Evil countries would agree with Khrushchev’s alleged strategy, and that each of them is preparing to execute that strategy. Just take a look at the recent provocations issued by the authoritarian regimes in Russia, North Korea, and Iran, and by China.

The next 15 months could prove to be the most dangerous period in the history of our nation. From the perspective of the Bad Guys, that period will represent a once-in-a- century opportunity to take down the Great Satan, the Unites States. We have a President who might as well be walking around with a “Kick Me” sign on his back, who has shown he is a pushover in the negotiation of treaties (oops, one is not to call them treaties), who has shown he has no answer for Chinese aggression in the South China Sea or for Russian aggression in the Middle East and in the former Soviet bloc countries in Eastern Europe. No matter how often Iran demands yet another re-negotiation of the nuclear non-treaty, the President rushes to capitulate. Where is JFK when we need him?

Do not be surprised if those rogue regimes determine that it is now-or-never for their dream of taking us down, that the pace of their confrontational behavior must be accelerated, and that they cannot afford the risk of America’s electing another President before their predations are completed. Things might move quickly.

FIORINA AND RUBIO

Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio stole the show. What a relief, what a pleasant surprise. What a great ticket the two of them would make, not just because of its impact upon female voters and Latino voters, not just because it would be the most effective counter to the only thing the Clinton candidacy still has going for it (“first female President,” etc.), but because these two are so competent, so verbally quick and concise, so well-informed on both the economy and national defense, and so strong on all the issues the Republican Party – in its sane intervals – has stood for, going back all the way to when the Democratic Party was the party of racial segregation and the GOP was the liberal party. I haven’t felt so good about a potential ticket since Ronald Reagan ran for President along with whoever-it-was that shared the ticket with him in his two elections.

Carly could be our own Golda Meir but with a prettier face. The woman who is tougher than all the men in the room. The visionary CEO who got dumped by Hewlett Packard but is now supported by the guy who led the revolt against her, the guy who has now acknowledged that Carly was right and he and his colleagues were wrong. After she got the economy rolling again and our international role re-established, she could deliver the reins into the competent hands of her younger VP.